Dr. Hans von Storch
Inst. für Küstenforschung, GKSS, Geesthacht
Noise in Climate Dynamics Ubiquitous, Constitutive and Concealing
Abstract: The changing unpredictable weather fluctuations are an ever-present source of noise in the climate system. The presence of this noise causes additional challenges to the climate modeler who already has to deal with a highly complex, open, and heterogeneous system. The weather noise plays a constructive role in that it causes climate variability, in much the same way that fluid molecules cause Brownian motion of ink particles. This weather induced climate variability is studied with stochastic climate models that employ stochastic processes and stochastic differential equations. Here the challenge is to find stochastic processes that are sufficiently complex to give realistic variability and yet sufficiently simple to contain understandable physics. The weather noise also plays a destructive role in that it and its induced variability masks climate changes caused by anthropogenic and other deterministic influences. Here the challenge is to devise statistical methods that can detect climate change in the presence of climate variability. These methods must take into account the multiple patterns and structures both of the signal and the noise.Siehe: von Storch, H., J.-S. von Storch, and P. Müller, 2001: Noise in the Climate System - Ubiquitous, Constitutive and Concealing. In B. Engquist and W. Schmid (eds.) Mathematics Unlimited - 2001 and Beyond. Part II. Springer Verlag, 1179-1194
| Zeit: | Friday, January 17, 2003, 14.15 Uhr |
| Ort: | FU Berlin, Arnimallee 2-6, Raum 032 im EG |